Sunday, December 18, 2016

Mark Spitznagel: 
"The Big, Fat, Ugly Stock Bubble" 
Is Now The Greatest Risk For Trump
"The 'big, fat, ugly bubble' in the stock market that President-elect Donald J. Trump so astutely identified during his campaign now becomes one of the greatest potential liabilities of his presidency. If that bubble bursts soon, the pain will correctly be understood to be the result of monetary manipulations during the Obama years. But if it persists and the United States economy manages to further postpone its long-overdue recession (following an expansion that was barely that), Mr. Trump’s ostensibly 'free-market' policies will unfairly bear the blame when the markets finally do return to reality — perhaps a year or two down the road. The postelection Trump rally in the stock market is evidence of euphoric optimism about the fiscal stimulus, reduced regulations and lower taxes that are hoped for. And yet we mustn’t forget where we are today, with distorted pricing in virtually all markets and extremely levered public and private balance sheets, all driven by monetary interventionism on a scale never seen before: By most measures, the stock market is as expensive as it has been for a century, save only the giddy late 1990s .. There’s something about a government that steps back to let free markets fix themselves that invariably renders it a ripe target for blame. 'Couldn’t you have done something?' .. If Mr. Trump can focus on the long term and encourage asset prices and investments to correct themselves early (to the extent that he even holds such sway over them), perhaps this controlled experiment can remain obvious to everyone. Worthy or not, as the current general for advocates of the free market, he should hope to lose the short-term battle to win the bigger war, to gain positional advantage for the looming contest ahead."
LINK HERE to the essay

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