Monday, December 12, 2016

Is 1999 Going To Repeat?
Lance Roberts: "If this market rally seems eerily familiar, it’s because it is. If fact, the backdrop of the rally reminds me much of what was happening in 1999:
- Fed was hiking rates as worries about inflationary pressures were present.
- Economic growth was improving
- Interest and inflation were rising
- Earnings were rising through the use of “new metrics,” share buybacks & an M&A spree. (Who can forget the market greats of Enron, Worldcom & Global Crossing)
- Stock market was beginning to go parabolic as exuberance exploded in a “can’t lose market.”
- If you were around then, you will remember. The charts below show a comparison of GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates (10-year) & the S&P 500 between 1998-2002 (dashed lines) and 2014-Present (solid lines). The data is nominal & quarterly.
LINK HERE to the analysis

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