Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Yra Harris: Financial Repression
Coming From Negative Interest Rates
& A Cashless Society
"Trump will be playing a dangerous game if he turns his back on those who had greater hope for the draining of the swamp. There is a euphoria from the entrepreneurial class that tax reform and the lifting of some burdensome regulations will take place under Trump but a massive fiscal stimulus will have to be financed and rising interest rates will place a burden upon the budget plans being discussed. Even Druckenmiller was talking about robust growth fueling a rise in long-term rates. He noted a level of 6%. As previously discussed, DEBT will be the most important factor overhanging any Trump-inspired growth strategy .. Where Druckenmiller discusses NOMINAL RATES my focus will be on REAL RATES. At zero interest rates around the world, monetary policy has been in uncharted territory as central bankers sought to ease the burdens of a global balance sheet recession (Richard Koo). Getting back to interest rates as a signalling mechanism will restore classic fundamentals to a premier position in global macro analysis .. The point of a cashless society has been raised by Larry Summers as a way to deal with his beloved theory of secular stagnation. In a cashless society a central bank could impose NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES of say 3% and not worry about cash being hoarded. Only a fool would keep being charged on deposits and thus there would be a rush to spend every digital cent. So we will continue to monitor the financial repression in India. Interesting that this took place after Raghuram Rajan was replaced as the Governor of the Indian Central Bank."
LINK HERE to the commentary

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