Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Ray Dalio*:
Are We At A Major Reversal In
The Economy & Financial Markets?
"The main point we’re trying to convey is that there is a good chance that we are at one of those major reversals that last a decade (like the 1970-71 shift from the 1960s period of non-inflationary growth to the 1970s decade of stagflation, or the 1980s shift to disinflationary strong growth). To be clear, we are not saying that the future will be like any of these mentioned prior periods; we are just saying that there’s a good chance that the economy/market will shift from what we have gotten used to and what we will experience over the next many years will be very different from that."
on the markets now: "The question will be when will this move short-circuit itself—i.e., when will the rise in nominal (and, more importantly, real) bond yields and risk premiums start hurting other asset prices. That will depend on a number of things, most importantly how the rise in inflation and growth will be accommodated, that we don’t want to delve into now as that would take us off track."
LINK HERE to the missive

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Sure ... but it will take another 10 years to identify a change in secular financial trends. Mean time we grow older and some will die. One has to deal with what we have now, and those prospects are not good with the enormous burden of debt and entitlements.

If Trump is true to form he will claim bankruptcy. Some will simply get less than what they imagined they would. Bankruptcy is a nasty word. Nevertheless, it is realistically the situation already. Hillary, of course, would have tried to kick the can even further down the road, following in the footsteps of her presidential sponsor, leading to an even more severe reckoning eventuality.

There are some unpleasant messages Trump will have to communicate to the American people. Not the least of which is the awful and most unfortunate fact that the USA is at war with an ideology, not just a few very hard to die independent terrorists warriors. The official recognition of this harsh reality will be refreshing. Nevertheless, it will offend many who prefer instead to continue to digest vogue liberal suicidal spiel.

Make America great again Mr. Trump for all our sakes.