Wednesday, November 23, 2016

David Skarica: 
Even Trump’s Best Policies 
Can’t Stop the Crash
Palisade Radio .. Some investors are getting carried away with ‘Trump trades’. Now that he is elected we see the psychological optimism linked to cutting taxes, deregulation, & infrastructure spending being reflected in the stock market. David Skarica thinks the stock market is overvalued, this upward trend won’t last long. He is preparing for a crash between the summer & fall- which is the common historical trend, as is a crash under a Republican majority .. Many are comparing Trump to Reagan, and David points out some key similarities and differences. In 1980 as well as present day- we have high unemployment, stagnant wages, and are coming out of a 6 or 7 year bull market. There are some glaring differences though. When Reagan took office, the debt to GDP of the U.S. was around 30%.. the interest rates were higher, and people had very little personal debt. When they increased spending and cut taxes, they could run the huge deficits because it was at a low level, while interest rates were coming from a secular top .. Now the debt to GDP is over 100%. Interest rates likely bottomed this past summer, & should be headed higher for the next decade .. If the U.S. policy divergence in interest rates continues, it could burst the stock market bubble .. 25 minutes

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The USA has full employment what is he nattering about ?