Friday, October 28, 2016

U.S. Election: It's About A New Social Contract
"The ugly truth surrounding this ballot lies in the bigger picture, as whoever becomes president will go down in history as the 'non-president' – the president who made us need, see, and demand something else .. Trump merely represents the catalyst for change. He is the anti-establishment candidate, yes, but not our vision for the future. Ultimately, Trump may still win despite (rather than because of) being... Trump. That does not excuse mainstream media for not going after Clinton. If elected, she will be the least-liked president in U.S. history, and I doubt any of her policies will do anything good for America .. I am 100% agnostic, politically-speaking. In fact, I don't even think this election really matters! No, this is not a new trend; no, Clinton is not the answer... but what this is a generational repositioning and renegotiation of the social contract .. The real election issue in America, but also in Europe. is how to deal with a broken social contract. Society has been pushed so far away from its natural equilibrium in terms of markets, social homogeneity, equality, and productivity that the move back to 'normal' will bear both a political price and a penalty in terms of growth and outlook .. The next election cycle is about protest; it will be followed by crisis and then new beginnings .. If Clinton wins, the probability of a recession increases immediately and big business with return to a '70s-like state under a Politburo-esque White House .. If Trump wins, we will have taken the fast track to massive political upheaval as the end of the Democratic/GOP monopoly on politics shifts towards a social agenda against globalization, openness, and trade... the only good thing to come out of such a change would be the fact of change itself .. This U.S. elections will not have any winners, only losers – but don't despair. The U.S. and the world economy will come back, and with surprising strength, but the political timeline is now finally aligned with the economics malaise created by central bankers .. Volatility and uncertainty will be high the next over the next nine months, through the German election ..This is a protest election, and the U.S. and the world likely have some choppy seas."
- Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist Saxo Bank
LINK HERE to the essay

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