Monday, October 31, 2016

Frank Holmes* On U.S. Elections
& The Performance Of The Financial Markets
"A president who’s up for reelection has a huge incentive to enact policies that support the economy and labor market, which investors like. By the end of his second term, however, markets are faced with the reality that someone new will be occupying the Oval Office soon, complete with a new cabinet, new agenda, new governing style and new policies. This uncertainty has historically given investors the jitters—even when they’re in favor of the incoming president. (Even the most ardent Trump supporter must admit he’s more volatile and higher-risk than Hillary, who would likely maintain the status quo. But like a high-risk stock, Trump could also potentially deliver much higher returns.) In second-term election years, then, equities dipped an average 4 percent, compared to an average increase of 7 percent during all election years. Will we see a repeat of this in 2016? There’s
no way to say for sure."
LINK HERE to the report

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