Thursday, January 24, 2013

Why China's Credit System
Looks Vulnerable
"From a valuation perspective, Chinese equities do not, at first glance, look to be a likely candidate for trouble. The PE ratios are either 12 or 15 times on MSCI China, depending on whether you include financials or not, and do not scream 'bubble'. And yet, China has been a source of worry for GMO over the past three years and continues to be one .. Of course, every credit bubble involves a widening divergence between perception and reality. China's case is not fundamentally different. In GMO's extensive discussion below, they have documented rapid credit growth against the background of a nationwide property bubble, the worst of Asian crony lending practices, and the appearance of a voracious and unstable shadow banking system. 'Bad' credit booms generally end in banking crises and are followed by periods of lackluster economic growth. China appears to be heading in this direction."
- GMO
LINK HERE to download the GMO paper

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