Article courtesy of Bloomberg and Financial Post explores whether gold prices will advance again this year 2009 for possibly the 8th year of advances in a row... Average gold prices have risen for seven consecutive years, the longest winning streak since at least 1949....Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Will Gold Prices Go Higher Again in 2009?
Article courtesy of Bloomberg and Financial Post explores whether gold prices will advance again this year 2009 for possibly the 8th year of advances in a row... Average gold prices have risen for seven consecutive years, the longest winning streak since at least 1949....
Stern Economic Outlook Presentation
Daniel Stern of the Reservoir Capital Group presents a 50 slide view of what are the current market and economic conditions, how did we get to this point, and what are the implications going forward... there is also a voice file that accompanies the presentation, given below... one chart from the presentation above, courtesy of BCA Research, showing on-going de-leveraging environment...- slide deck: http://mooreschool.sc.edu/export/sites/default/moore/research/EOC-LINKS/PPT-EOC08-Stern.pdf
- voice file - play this at the same time: http://video.sc.edu/msb/stern.mp3
Oil Traders Seeking Shipping Vessels
Frontline, the largest owner of the large shipping vessels that transport crude oil over the high seas, reports that crude oil traders are seeking as many as 10 of these large vessels to store crude oil, potentially taking the amount hoarded at sea to almost five days of European Union demand...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZkqK5faJBmA&refer=home
CNBC Roundtable: Where to Put Your $
Insight on the markets, with Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital; Don Luskin, Trend Macro; and CNBC's Dennis Kneale & Larry Kudlow. Two 5-minute clips on roundtable discussion of the global economy, the financial crisis, and which asset classes make sense on where to put your money this year... chart above (click to enlarge; courtesy of stockcharts.com) shows asset class performance in 2008...Unintended Consequences
James Quinn, senior director of strategic planning at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, discusses the unintended consequences of cheap oil and 0% interest rates. He says "If U.S. leaders allow today’s low prices to reduce the sense of urgency regarding energy independence, the consequences will be shocking" and "The sum total of all that has been done and all that will be done will eventually lead to a hyperinflationary bust"...Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Marc Faber: Base Metals, Gold, WWIII
Global financial commentator and a Cliff Küle M-AA*(Most-Admired Adviser) Marc Faber discusses his preference for base metals relative to gold, mentions that the US stimulus plan is likely to end in a disaster, highlights Asian equities as relatively attractive, and says that World War III has already begun.. Sedacca: Bear Market Rally Trap Now
Bennet Sedacca, President of Atlantic Advisors, presents that this current rally is a bear market rally trap... and that investors are taking big risks to seek out yield... he is mostly in low-risk Ginnie Mae type investments paying 6% yield... in this missive, he goes through the disadvantages of municipal bonds, preferreds, stocks, and other asset classes... he presents the table (click to enlarge) above as the current investment portfolio of the US government...Byron Wien: 10 Surprises for 2009
Byron Wien, Chief Investment Strategist of Pequot Capital Management, Inc., issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2009... a couple include: gold rises to $1,200 per ounce and the price of oil returns to $80 per barrel...
Gold: Perfect Insurance?
Bloomberg article today discusses gold, the best-performing metal in 2008, as investors seek a refuge from declining interest rates at the same time that central banks inject more cash into the banking system...“People fear inflation, they fear the credit crunch and they fear currency losses, and gold is the perfect insurance against all of that,” said Frederic Panizzutti, a senior vice president at Geneva-based bullion refiner MKS Finance SA, and who was the most accurate forecaster in the London Bullion Market Association’s 2008 survey...Japan Asset Deflation Compared to Today
Some interesting charts comparing the Japan asset deflation experience to the current environment...
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/japanese-asset-bubble-lessons-from-the-economic-asset-bubble-of-japan-the-heisei-boom-what-parallels-exist-between-the-japanese-asset-bubble-and-our-current-financial-environment/
Projected Potash Prices
Projected potash prices courtesy of Fertecon, Potash One, Resourceinvestor (click to enlarge):http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=48804
Opportunities in Distressed Debt?
Creative Capital presents notes on a conference call of fund manager John Paulson. Paulson & Co. is considering:- Distressed mortgages.... buying them at yields in the 20% to 25% range
- Distressed debt, both leveraged loans and high yield debt... started to allocate money to that area....Targeting companies that will not go bankrupt. Yields north of 30%.
John thinks inflation may become a problem in the future when the government may find it hard to contain...
http://creativecapital.wordpress.com/2008/12/23/2009-outlook-from-current-master-of-the-universe-john-paulson-expect-more-pain-says-hedge-fund-king/Monday, January 5, 2009
Pimco's El-Erian: Get Out of Treasuries
"Get out of Treasuries. They are very, very expensive," Mohamed El-Erian, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., warned recently. Pimco runs the country's largest bond fund. El-Erian is a Cliff Küle M-AA*(Most-Admired Adviser)... Interesting article in Barron's regarding the government bond market - it could be the biggest bubble today involving one of the safest asset classes.. (click on diagrams to enlarge; courtesy of Bloomberg and Barron's)
Krugman: Fighting Depression
Economist Paul Krugman, a Cliff Küle M-AA*(Most-Admired Adviser), writes "This looks an awful lot like the beginning of a second Great Depression" and discusses the need and urgency now for a stimulus plan to avert deflation...Persian Gulf Single Currency Approved
Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders yesterday finished their 29th annual summit meeting in Muscat, Oman. They agreed on approval for the creation of a single currency for the six-nation economic bloc, targeting 2010 for its inception. Could this be US Dollar negative, as it includes gold either as a part of the monetary basket, or as part of the reserves of the new GCC Central Bank...Bonds in 2009?
John Browne, Senior Market Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital and former member of Britain's Parliament, discusses the fundamental considerations on US bonds in 2009 and concludes that bonds will have no fundamental drivers in 2009 and presents the possibility that if the US loses its prestigious triple-A credit rating, the prices of US bonds will plummet...Next World Order: India and China
India and China are in a struggle for leadership of world power, but their approaches to the state, to power, and to economic development are very different. Indians have a saying "our economy grows at night when the government is asleep"... Gurcharan Das, the author of “India Unbound", writes on the different approaches of India and China in the New York Times opinion...Sunday, January 4, 2009
The Economist: Diagnosing Depression
Economics focus article in The Economist discusses the differences between a recession and a depression, and surveys historical deep recessions/depressions in relation to the current US and global environments...Gold Stocks During the 1930s
Financial writer Steve Saville of the Speculative Investor analyzes the behavior of gold stocks during the 1930s... and concludes that we are in unchartered waters...
Inflation only way out of Depression?
Stephen Jarislowsky, head of Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd., an independent investment-counselling firm, manages about $52-billion in assets for pension funds, institutions and private customers. Stephen mentions that the only way out of this depression is to create inflation to get rid of the debt... Stephen says "The only way to get housing to go up again is through inflation, by reducing the value of the mortgages. The only way to get the consumer back purchasing things is to get rid of their debts and that can only be done through inflation. I'm not somebody who believes in inflation. I think it's an awful thing, but there's no alternative"...
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Barron's Abelson: Prophecy Plague
Financial writer Alan Abelson discusses the many articles, predictions, and forecasts in the news now on the upcoming year and says there are very few asset classes which make sense now... and that "profits and stock prices are inextricably bound together"...Martin Feldstein Discusses Fiscal Stimulus
Harvard University Professor of Economics (and former economics advisor to President Reagan) Martin Feldstein discusses the fiscal stimulus options, government spending, US mortgage issues, and the US economy... says US Fed may need to address inflation risks later... and when the economy does expand, it will be a very slow expansion... about 9 minutes in length...Achuthan: Global Recession Spreading
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at Economic Cycle Research Institute, discusses how the global recession is spreading and the dismal prospects for stocks... says data indicates worst recession since World War II... there will be a huge surprise when the markets turn upwards... home prices are key indicator to look at... about 4 minutes in length...http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1264/
Friday, January 2, 2009
20 Surprises for 2009
Doug Kass, the "anti-Cramer" and founder of Seabreeze Partners, has published his “20 Surprises for 2009” - a highly anticipated predictions for the new year which has proven remarkably accurate in past years...here are two: "The U.S. stock market rises by close to 20% in the year's first half" and "A second quarter 'growth scare' bursts the bubble in the government bond market"...How to Invest in Oil
Richard Shaw,of QVM Group, discusses how to invest in energy...lots of charts (worth 1000's of words) followed by worthwhile observations & conclusions... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8024.html
Dennis Gartman: Bullish on Grains
Financial commentator and Economist Dennis Gartman discusses commodity markets, the Canadian markets, and currencies... he is bullish on the grains...5 Themes for 2009
Kevin Depew, of Minyanville.com, discusses 5 themes for 2009... Gold Declines;Dollar Rises; Interest Rates hover at unimaginable lows - "the purpose of deflationary debt unwinds is to crush the spirits (and speculative juices) of all who attempt to participate in financial markets. The point of recognition for this deflationary debt unwind will culminate in another wave of intense selling pressure as the last speculators standing give up."US Fed Approach: Printing Money Like Mad - Potentially Dire Consequences?
There is no shortage of money because the US Fed is printing like mad. It's the wrong approach, with potentially dire consequences, says Jim Grant, a Cliff Küle M-AA*(Most-Admired Adviser)... Jim says "The truth is that the [US] Federal Reserve is itself a highly leveraged financial institution"...Thursday, January 1, 2009
Update on Precious Metals
Chris Puplava of Financial Sense presents several interesting observations on precious metals; the relation of precious metals to oil; and the gold/silver ratio from long-term historical perspectives...silver to outperform gold? (click on chart courtesy of Chris Puplava above)http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2008/1231.html
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