Has the US Recovery Begun? asks Martin Feldstein... reviews several factors but concludes: "The positive effect of the stimulus package is simply not large enough to offset the negative impact of dramatically lower household wealth,declines in residential construction, dysfunctional banking system that does not increase credit creation,& the downward spiral of house prices. The Obama administration has developed policies to counter these negative effects, but, in my judgment, they are not adequate to turn the economy around & produce a sustained recovery"... http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2009/05/has_the_us_recovery_begun.html